Who votes in EU elections? Social progress as a predictor of political engagement

The European Parliament elections of June 2024 were an opportunity for us to analyse citizens’ electoral behaviour in elections taking place in all EU countries. It allowed us to look for different aspects that influence this behaviour, mainly what drives Europeans to vote. Beyond political campaigns and party affiliation, we found that other elements, such as the quality of life and socio-political opportunities, might also influence the citizens’ decision to participate in a European election.

Discovering the Social Progress Index and its link with voter turnout

In May 2024, the European Commission released the third edition of the European Union Social Progress Index 2.0 (EU-SPI 2.0)—first published in 2016. It aims to measure EU regions’ social progress and complement traditional economic development measures, such as the gross domestic product (GDP). The Index is based on 53 socio-economic and environmental indicators, grouped into twelve components and three broader dimensions—‘Basic needs’, ‘Foundations of wellbeing’, and ‘Opportunity’—describing basic, intermediate, and more advanced aspects of social progress, respectively. The Index is a valuable tool for cross-comparisons of political, social, and economic indicators when tracking complex sociopolitical dynamics such as voting behaviour and turnout.

In this EUIdeas post, we explore if the quality of people’s lives (as measured by the EU-SPI 2.0) is in any way reflected in the level of participation in the 2024 European elections. We do so by looking at the level of social progress and the election turnout across EU regions.

As shown in Figure 1, the EU-SPI 2.0 score strongly correlates with voter turnout at the EU level, revealing that regions with higher social progress index scores tend to have a higher turnout at EU elections (please access this link to view the interactive versions of the figures).

Within the indicators of the SPI, those in the ‘Opportunity’ dimension have a strong relationship with voter turnout, as they measure the degree to which a country’s citizens have the freedom and opportunity to make their own life choices and pursue higher education, which impacts their political engagement.

However, the strongest link is with ‘Housing’—a component of the ‘Basic needs’ dimension—which implies that people with better housing conditions are more likely to vote in elections when compared to other aspects of social progress. This is particularly significant as other index components, such as ‘Safety’ and ‘Basic Education’, show a negligible correlation with turnout, further singling out the impact of the housing crisis over political engagement at the EU level.

The low turnout at EU elections during economic crises has already been documented in past elections. This allows us to infer that economic conditions tend to impact citizens’ participation in European elections. The effects of quality of life over electoral participation have been proved at the national level, and our finding suggests that this relationship is also present in European elections.

Nonetheless, these trends vary widely, as Figure 2 shows. It presents the ratio between the SPI score and the voter turnout in the different regions, compared to the EU average. Regions highlighted in green indicate ratios higher than the EU average, meaning citizens there are more likely to vote than the SPI scores of their regions or countries would suggest. This is a noteworthy trend in countries like Belgium and Romania: the first, due to a strong tradition of electoral participation and an (unenforced) regime of compulsory voting; the second, due to a national-based electoral behaviour that has deepened in the latest election cycles, pushing its turnout well over the Eastern European average.

Linking the Social Progress Index with political engagement

As the EU-SPI 2.0 offers a variety of components that measure various aspects of social progress, it allows for the identification of different types of relations with the political behaviour of citizens throughout Europe’s regions. The analysis is also relevant at the local level as the comparison between electoral participation and the SPI highlights the regions with a lower turnout than expected for their degree of social progress, as shown in Figure 3.

The regions below the line in Figure 3 have a lower participation in EU elections than what their level of social progress, as measured by the Index, would predict. This is a helpful tool to identify locations with significant room for improvement in their turnout in future European elections, as observed in some regions of Northern and Eastern Europe.

On the other hand, the regions above the line allow the identification of specific policies at the local level that foster electoral participation. This will enable policymakers to explore solutions beyond well-known policies such as absentee voting through mail or by proxy, or compulsory voting—which has been successful in Belgium and Luxembourg but less so in Greece, for instance.

Which policies can help to raise electoral participation?

The analysis helps to identify local-scope policies which can successfully raise electoral participation, such as transport facilitation on election day (like the city of Wroclaw has implemented in Poland), the automatic registration of mobile EU citizens to vote in European elections when they register their residence in a new country (as implemented by Ireland), and foster critical areas of municipal policy such as urbanisation.

Implementing EU-wide and locally-based policies that address quality of life and sociopolitical opportunities can lead to higher voter turnout, which is vital for future European elections. It is essential, however, to consider the particularities of each region and prioritise bettering material conditions and civic engagement in areas where the lowest social progress scores lead to weak electoral participation. For example, looking back at Figure 1, it is evident that ‘Housing’ and ‘Trust and Governance’ are two components that strongly correlate with voter turnout, suggesting the persistent need to develop EU-wide policies to improve habitation solutions and build resilient trust in political institutions.

In this way, using the Social Progress Index as guidance for implementing specific policies to improve turnout at the next European elections is a promising path towards an efficient resource allocation that strengthens EU citizens’ political engagement.

Tags: European Parliament elections, European Parliament, Voting