Will the election Down Under end the climate wars?

Australians will vote in a federal general election on 3 May 2025. This will mark three years since the progressive Labor party, led by Anthony Albanese, emphatically won office, defeating the incumbent conservative Liberal-National coalition.

The two major parties (Labor and Liberal, with their National Party coalition partner) have agreed on few policies at the federal level over the course of many years, especially in the area of energy and climate policy. The debate over energy and climate policy is so acrimonious that it is commonly referred to as the ‘climate wars’ in Australia.

Energy is once again a key policy issue this election. In this article, I recount Australia’s arduous and protracted journey to addressing climate change and consider whether the election outcome could end almost two decades of ‘climate wars’.

Australia’s path towards decarbonisation

Australia consistently ranks as the highest per capita emitter of carbon dioxide among economically developed countries.

Rich in natural resources, Australia has historically generated much of its electricity from its abundant coal and natural gas reserves. These resources have also brought significant export opportunities, primarily directed toward Asian markets.

While Australia continues to export fossil fuels, new private investment in domestic electricity generation is now almost exclusively in renewable energy, due partially to technological advancements enhancing the commercial attractiveness of renewables.

Such investment is mainly concentrated in large-scale wind, solar, and firming technologies and has risen in parallel with the gradual retirement of coal generation. Household rooftop solar utilisation has grown rapidly, with Australia home to the highest per capita amount of rooftop solar energy systems.

The ‘climate wars’

The shift towards renewable technologies has occurred largely due to market forces and in spite of significant indecision and ‘flip-flopping’ between successive federal governments in Australia.

Australia was slow to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, only doing so in 2007. Meanwhile, a carbon price has never been implemented, despite several attempts to do so.

A previous Labor government introduced a carbon price intended to be effective by 2012 after two failed efforts to pass legislation in the Senate, only for it to be overturned two years later by the incoming Liberal-National government – a government that preferred piecemeal ‘direct action’ in areas such as agriculture.

The same government experienced multiple leadership changes, in large part due to internal tensions over climate policies both within the Liberal party and between the Liberal and National Parties, the latter of which holds strong representation in regional electorates.

In 2018, the Liberal Party’s Malcolm Turnbull lost his prime ministership to fellow Liberal Scott Morrison, following efforts to embed climate action in energy markets through the National Energy Guarantee.

The few bipartisan climate policies of the last twenty years have included a target for renewable energy and federal incentives for solar rooftop and hot water systems (along with state and local government incentives, the main reason for Australia’s aforementioned rooftop solar success). The business community has called for policy certainty on more than one occasion, in the form of clear, credible, and consistent policy frameworks that attract private investment.

In the absence of federal policy leadership between 2018 and 2022, the once functional policy-making process between the federal government and Australia’s eight states and territories proved ineffective. The states, including New South Wales and Victoria, filled the void with their own renewable energy policies. This shift has generated greater investment in renewables but created a fragmented national policy and regulatory landscape.

Recent momentum and stability

The current Labor government, since its election in 2022, has promoted the advancement of climate policy. This has taken shape through public commitments to international climate agreements, an ambitious net zero emissions target, and new policies to stimulate wind, solar, and firming investment (including the Capacity Investment Scheme), as well as greater policy alignment with the states and territories.

Other landmark Labor energy and climate initiatives include the party’s strategy for green hydrogen and its investment in the extensive electricity transmission construction required to support new renewable energy generation.

In parallel, however, the Labor government has supported the exploration and opening of new gas fields, driven by the promise of export opportunities and the role of gas as a transition fuel.

The 2025 election: will the ‘climate wars’ finally end?

By now, it should be no surprise to the reader that Australia’s two major parties hold divergent energy and climate policy stances in the upcoming election.

In addition to retaining many of its aforementioned renewable energy policies, the Labor government is offering an additional payment towards energy bills and has committed to a domestic gas reservation policy to bring down consumer prices.

The opposition Liberal-National Coalition, led by Peter Dutton, has shared two major energy policies in the runup to the election. It proposes, firstly, to build nuclear generators at the sites of existing coal-fired generators, despite expert modelling showing nuclear generation to be less economically efficient. Dutton’s nuclear policy addresses an internal tension within the Liberal-National coalition – it meets progressive party members’ net zero aspirations while satisfying its renewable-shy National Party coalition partner.

Second, the opposition promises to “get gas working for Australians” to manage electricity prices. The opposition has shared no net zero targets.

Peter Dutton has also been pressed to confirm that he believes in climate change after wavering in response to a question at a televised pre-election debate between Dutton and Prime Minister Albanese.

At the time of writing, YouGov polls identify the current Labor government as the party most likely to form a majority government (in the compulsory, single-transferrable-vote electoral system). The same poll also predicts minor parties and independents will hold a ‘decisive presence’. If the latter is the case, the Labor party may form a minority government, relying on minor parties or independent ‘cross-benchers’ to pass legislation.

Dutton’s Liberal-National coalition had led as recently as four weeks ago, before suffering from a number of unpopular election policies that brought a perceived association to American President Donald Trump– in particular, axing work-from-home arrangements and diversity, equity, and inclusion jobs in the federal public service.

Enter the ‘Teals’

In the 2022 federal election, a new group of independent candidates known as the ‘Teals’ won six seats previously held by incumbent Liberal-National members of parliament.

The six female Teals, all but one funded by advocacy group Climate 200, ran on an environmental policy platform mixed with economic centrism and found success in affluent electorates frustrated with Liberal-National inaction on climate change. In parallel, the minor Green Party had their most successful election to date.

Much is at stake on 3 May. With the latest polling showing the governing Labor party edging ahead, the election outcome has the potential to end Australia’s arduous and protracted journey toward addressing climate change after almost two decades of ‘climate wars’.

Tags: Australia, Elections, Climate, climate action