Border crises are reinforcing rather than breaking a pan-EU governmental consensus on border security, according to the Migration Policy Centre’s James Dennison and Andrew Geddes. In this post they point out the many new political problems which this focus on border protection creates.

The EU’s capacity to coalesce into a single geopolitical actor is limited on many fronts. However, as Jan Lepeu explains, sanctions have become an effective foreign policy instrument which, beyond serving explicit objectives, also contribute to the European Union’s international standing.

Russian intervention is possible, but at this point very unlikely. Much depends on the next steps of the protesters, the Belarusian regime, and major Western states.